I have found that some are following this very closely and appreciate regular updates. So I will continue to update until the end of the prediction timeline (the 20th).
If one were to evaluate the model, the model is losing accuracy. The last four data points have avoided the 95% prediction bounds. But unfortunately it just seems like the model is off by a day, which means the number of people predicted to die over time is fairly accurate.
Yesterday’s (8/16) Israel recorded 19 deaths, under the lower bound of the prediction which was 22.
What do moving averages look like? Even if the model is holding as a trend, it should not be surprising that there is not day to day precise accuracy, especially with smaller numbers
Pfizer's own 6 month Safety and Efficacy study appears to agree that protection against death isn't a thing. See page 12 of the supplementary materials. Summary: 15 dead in the vax portion, 14 in the placebo (N ~ 22k for each side):
Are some of these misses due to reporting timelines? For example, deaths actually occurring on Friday, Saturday and Sunday might be reported on Sunday.
What do you make of the idea that time between jabs is less than optimal in Israel while it is better I.e. longer in the UK? Of course, which vax was used is also generally different.
What do moving averages look like? Even if the model is holding as a trend, it should not be surprising that there is not day to day precise accuracy, especially with smaller numbers
Pfizer's own 6 month Safety and Efficacy study appears to agree that protection against death isn't a thing. See page 12 of the supplementary materials. Summary: 15 dead in the vax portion, 14 in the placebo (N ~ 22k for each side):
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261159v1.full.pdf
https://www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.07.28.21261159v1.supplementary-material
Are some of these misses due to reporting timelines? For example, deaths actually occurring on Friday, Saturday and Sunday might be reported on Sunday.
At the very end, would you mind fitting a trendline to the Real Deaths?
What do you make of the idea that time between jabs is less than optimal in Israel while it is better I.e. longer in the UK? Of course, which vax was used is also generally different.