There have been three values since last update. 8/13, 8/14, 8/15 with 7, 11, and 46 respectively. I had hoped the first two values, which fell under the prediction, were indicating a trend. Unfortunately I don’t think that is the case.
The predictions are all based on raw data points, nothing is smoothed.
The variation may be a mix of reporting delays based on day of week or simply the 14 day fixed days out of the predictor function having its own unaccounted for variance.
Is that leap a weekend effect, or is it possible that it was an adjustment?
Are you running a smoothed blue line?
The predictions are all based on raw data points, nothing is smoothed.
The variation may be a mix of reporting delays based on day of week or simply the 14 day fixed days out of the predictor function having its own unaccounted for variance.