Two new data points have come in since the last update. 8/18 and 8/19 with 19 and 29 deaths respectively. Both within the prediction bounds, unfortunately.
Somebody has to be your intellectually slowest follower, and I think that would be me. Do you have the patience to help me understand this statement? « However, Walensky noted that data from Israel suggests "increased risk of severe disease amongst those vaccinated early." I think that the group who were vaccinated early was the older, weaker or sicker group. So does it make sense to compare this group with the younger, stronger and healthier group that was vaccinated later and to conclude that the vaccine is losing efficacy? I think it does not, but what do you say?
Second dumb question: I am having trouble keeping in mind exactly what your graph uses as the past which you are now entering data to compare with. Is it 2020 highest spike of disease data? Is it what would be expected if nobody were vaccinated? Sorry. I think I asked before, but something isn’t clicking in my poooooor old brain.
I had read an article noting that the absolute risk reduction of the vaccines was about 1% reduction --so could this be a reason why the hospitalizations and deaths are tracking similar to previous waves despite hospitalizations?
Somebody has to be your intellectually slowest follower, and I think that would be me. Do you have the patience to help me understand this statement? « However, Walensky noted that data from Israel suggests "increased risk of severe disease amongst those vaccinated early." I think that the group who were vaccinated early was the older, weaker or sicker group. So does it make sense to compare this group with the younger, stronger and healthier group that was vaccinated later and to conclude that the vaccine is losing efficacy? I think it does not, but what do you say?
Second dumb question: I am having trouble keeping in mind exactly what your graph uses as the past which you are now entering data to compare with. Is it 2020 highest spike of disease data? Is it what would be expected if nobody were vaccinated? Sorry. I think I asked before, but something isn’t clicking in my poooooor old brain.
Dr RollerGator, would you care to comment on this? Making the rounds as a debunking of the "Israeli misinformation". https://www.covid-datascience.com/post/israeli-data-how-can-efficacy-vs-severe-disease-be-strong-when-60-of-hospitalized-are-vaccinated
I had read an article noting that the absolute risk reduction of the vaccines was about 1% reduction --so could this be a reason why the hospitalizations and deaths are tracking similar to previous waves despite hospitalizations?
So what will you do in a day or 2, recalibrate the formula?