The first three new data points since my article, providing crude prediction model for the deaths under the current Israeli COVID wave, are in. They are 19, 7, 17. In line with the crude prediction model. Please take the time to read the article if you do not know what this crude prediction model is about.
What other data might those who talk of the vaccinated having some percentage less likelihood of “severe illness, hospitalization and death” be using as the basis of their ideas? Thanks for doing this. It’s useful to those of us with no idea how to sort through what we hear in the media.
In populations with partial vaccination, say 50-60%, a larger proportion of people infected in the waves may be younger. The younger are less likely to die from COVID so the deaths per case wind up being much lower than previous waves. So it winds up looking like the vaccine have protected a larger number of people from death /after infection/ than it really has.
Once the whole population is vaccinated (israel 89-90%) that has less ability to happen, as there are fewer unvaccinated left. So in this case what we might be seeing is that even if vaccinated you may have roughly the same risk of death as you had before.
By and large, those people are using data from other countries where the vaccine program was rolled out more recently. One reason the Israel data is anomalous is because they vaccinated much of their population early on, so what we are really seeing here is delayed vaccine failure. I think this is due to variants like Delta which escape the antibodies produced by the vaccine, as well as decaying immunity over time.
Yes, he is not discussing hospitalizations and deaths /among those who get covid/.
He's only looking at vaccinated/unvaccinated status. It is not additional layers of protection after infection. His numbers show that the Case Fatality Rate in the vaccinated is about 20x that of the unvaccinated.
So if you want to say "what are my odds of getting COVID on any given day" then vaccinated are far lower than unvaccinated.
But once you're infected, the additional protection is mostly not there. His math results in people thinking it doesn't matter if they get COVID, when it does.
How long would the crude prediction model need to be accurate in predicting deaths for confirmation that vaccines are not providing any additional protection post infection?
That's not necessarily something that can be "concluded" to any finality. Someone will make a counterfactual argument about what might have been in an alternate universe.
What we would be able to say is that this wave looked similar in terms of cases and deaths to previous waves. Whether you interpret that as Delta is more deadly and vaccines did a lot to protect, or nothing has changed, or something else, is probably not going to be decided simply by the crude prediction holding.
No bueno, señor cocodrilo.
What other data might those who talk of the vaccinated having some percentage less likelihood of “severe illness, hospitalization and death” be using as the basis of their ideas? Thanks for doing this. It’s useful to those of us with no idea how to sort through what we hear in the media.
In populations with partial vaccination, say 50-60%, a larger proportion of people infected in the waves may be younger. The younger are less likely to die from COVID so the deaths per case wind up being much lower than previous waves. So it winds up looking like the vaccine have protected a larger number of people from death /after infection/ than it really has.
Once the whole population is vaccinated (israel 89-90%) that has less ability to happen, as there are fewer unvaccinated left. So in this case what we might be seeing is that even if vaccinated you may have roughly the same risk of death as you had before.
By and large, those people are using data from other countries where the vaccine program was rolled out more recently. One reason the Israel data is anomalous is because they vaccinated much of their population early on, so what we are really seeing here is delayed vaccine failure. I think this is due to variants like Delta which escape the antibodies produced by the vaccine, as well as decaying immunity over time.
Can you comment on Drbeen's analysis of differences in hospitalizations and deaths in vaccinated vs unvaccinated? https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=HUNquedzjWM&t=1135s
Yes, he is not discussing hospitalizations and deaths /among those who get covid/.
He's only looking at vaccinated/unvaccinated status. It is not additional layers of protection after infection. His numbers show that the Case Fatality Rate in the vaccinated is about 20x that of the unvaccinated.
So if you want to say "what are my odds of getting COVID on any given day" then vaccinated are far lower than unvaccinated.
But once you're infected, the additional protection is mostly not there. His math results in people thinking it doesn't matter if they get COVID, when it does.
How long would the crude prediction model need to be accurate in predicting deaths for confirmation that vaccines are not providing any additional protection post infection?
That's not necessarily something that can be "concluded" to any finality. Someone will make a counterfactual argument about what might have been in an alternate universe.
What we would be able to say is that this wave looked similar in terms of cases and deaths to previous waves. Whether you interpret that as Delta is more deadly and vaccines did a lot to protect, or nothing has changed, or something else, is probably not going to be decided simply by the crude prediction holding.
It might also be useful to look at a multi-day average of the blue dots once the rest of the data comes in
All of my sources are cited.