Today the last data point (8/20) is in, 7 deaths, and is very far below the predicted bounds. The wide disparity, 46 deaths one day, 26 another, to 7, clearly show the crude model isn’t capturing all factors involved in the daily numbers (it is narrower) - but I think the end conclusion is that this model was too accurate for as simple as it was. It should have failed miserably.
I will be writing a retrospective that includes a deeper dive in the near future.
Thank you for doing this, Dr RollerGator. So very helpful to have data from someone who has no agenda. Looking forward to your next post-Cynthia Ziegler
It looks like if you just applied a moving average you'd end up with a trend line in the lower end of the range, so we certainly can't reject the idea that cases and deaths are decoupled.
Some have suggested that the delta has a massive ramp up and then also a rapid decline. That was observed in India and the UK. Could that be what we are seeing here - the beginning of the drop off?
Thank you for doing this, Dr RollerGator. So very helpful to have data from someone who has no agenda. Looking forward to your next post-Cynthia Ziegler
It looks like if you just applied a moving average you'd end up with a trend line in the lower end of the range, so we certainly can't reject the idea that cases and deaths are decoupled.
thank you for this. great analysis.
Friday’s deaths are reported on Sunday, in my view. If there is no spike in deaths on Sunday, I will change my mind (after I eat my hat).
Some have suggested that the delta has a massive ramp up and then also a rapid decline. That was observed in India and the UK. Could that be what we are seeing here - the beginning of the drop off?